on an armed and
therefore necessarily precarious peace--since it is but human nature
that, given a difference which he considers serious enough for ground
for a quarrel, a man armed to the teeth would be less inclined to
settle the matter peaceably than one who is not so well prepared for a
fight.

Apart from this, the German complaint about the prolongation of the
war through the American supply of arms is proof in itself that the
refusal of such supplies would constitute a positive act of partiality
in favour of Germany.

And the great majority of Americans are convinced that the ruling
powers of Germany and Austria, though not perhaps the people
themselves, are responsible for the outbreak of the war; that they
have sinned against humanity and justice; that at least France and
England did not want war; that therefore its advent found them in a
comparatively unprepared state, and that it would constitute a
decided, serious and unjustifiable action of far-reaching effect
_against the Allies_ if America were to put an embargo on war
munitions--especially so in view of the fact that as a direct
consequence of the treaty-defying invasion of Belgium you are in
possession of the Belgian arms factories and iron mines and of about
75 per cent. of all the ore-producing capacity of France.

For neutrals to supply war materials to belligerents is an ancient,
unquestioned right, recognized by international law and frequently
practised by yourselves. To alter, during the course of a war, a
practice sanctioned by the law of nations and hitherto always
followed, would constitute a flagrant breach of neutrality, in that it
would necessarily help one side and harm the other.

The fact that at one time we forbade the export of arms to Mexico
affords no argument in favour of the German contention, for there it
was not a case of war between nations, but of civil war. There was
also the danger that such arms might eventually be used against
America herself, given the possibility that intervention by us in
Mexico might later on become necessary.

Commissions from Germany for the supply of arms would have been as
acceptable to our factories as were those from the Allies. It is not
America's fault if the German fleet does not break through the
British cordon and open the way for sea communication with Germany.
The superiority of the British fleet and the resulting consequences
must have been known to Germany before she permitted the o