owing to calculations drawn from our
internal divisions?"[495] Of the approaching change, however, no sign
yet appeared. The reverses of the French were still in the far future.
Not until September 14 did they enter Moscow, and news of this event
was received in the United States only at the end of November. A
contemporary weekly, under date of December 5, remarked: "Peace before
this time has been dictated by Bonaparte, as ought to have been
calculated upon by the dealers (_sic_) at St. Petersburg, before they,
influenced by the British, prevailed upon Alexander to embark in the
War.... All Europe, the British Islands excepted, will soon be at the
feet of Bonaparte."[496] This expectation, generally shared during the
summer of 1812, is an element in the American situation not to be
overlooked. As late as December 4, Henry Clay, addressing the House of
Representatives, of which he then was Speaker, said: "The British
trade shut out from the Baltic--excluded from the Continent of
Europe--possibly expelled the Black Sea--perishing in South America;
its illicit avenue to the United States, through Canada, closed--was
this the period for throwing open our own market by abandoning our
restrictive system? Perhaps at this moment the fate of the north of
Europe is decided, and the French Emperor may be dictating the law
from Moscow."[497] The following night Napoleon finally abandoned his
routed army and started on his return to Paris.

War having been foreseen, the British Government took its first step
without hesitation. On August 6 the Foreign Office issued Warren's
secret instructions, which were substantially the repetition of those
already addressed on July 8 to its representative in Washington. It
being probable that before they could be received he would have
departed in consequence of the rupture, Warren was to submit the
proposition contained in them, that the United States Government, in
view of the revocation of the Orders in Council, so long demanded by
it, should recall the hostile measures taken. In case of acceptance,
he was authorized to stop at once all hostilities within his command,
and to give assurance of similar action by his Government in every
part of the world. If this advance proved fruitless, as it did, no
orders instituting a state of war were needed, for it already existed;
but for that contingency Warren received further instructions as to
the course he was to pursue, in case "a desire should man