d in that which regards the army
as an organic unit.

It may, therefore, be claimed that, in some moderate degree, the
author is fitted by training and opportunities for undertaking the
necessarily difficult task of foretelling the trend of invention and
industrial improvement during the twentieth century. He must, of
course, expect to be wrong in a certain proportion of his
prognostications; but, like the meteorologists, he will be content if
in a fair percentage of his forecasts it should be admitted that he
has reasoned correctly according to the available data.

The questions to be answered in an inquiry as to the chances of
failure or success which lie before any invention or proposed
improvement are, first, whether it is really wanted; and, secondly,
whether the environment in the midst of which it must make its debut
is favourable. These requirements generally depend upon matters which,
to a large extent, stand apart from the personal qualifications of any
individual inventor.

In the course of a search through the vast accumulations of the patent
specifications of various countries, the thought is almost
irresistibly forced upon the mind of the investigator that "there is
nothing new under the sun". No matter how far back he may push his
inquiry in attempting to unveil the true source of any important idea,
he will always find at some antecedent date the germ, either of the
same inventive conception, or of something which is hardly
distinguishable from it. The habit of research into the origin of
improved industrial method must therefore help to strengthen the
impression of the importance of gradual growth, and of general
tendencies, as being the prime factors in promoting social advancement
through the success of invention.

The same habit will also generally have the effect of rendering the
searcher more diffident in any claims which he may entertain as to
the originality of his own ideas. Inventive thought has been so
enormously stimulated during the past two or three generations, that
the public recognition of a want invariably sets thousands of minds
thinking about the possible methods of ministering to it.

Startling illustrations of this fact are continually cropping up in
the experiences of patent agents and others who are engaged in
technological work and its literature. The average inventor is almost
always inclined to imagine--when he finds another man working in
exactly the same groove as hims