firm six months
before the war began. Only certificates of origin will bar out the
German product.

Amid the hatred that the war has engendered, England wonders at the
price she will pay for German exclusion. Men like Sir John Simon
solemnly assert in Parliament: "In proportion as we divert German trade
after the war we throw the trade of the Central European Powers more and
more into the hands of America, with the result that, unhappily, if we
became involved in another European war we should not be able to count
on the friendly neutrality which America has shown in this war." Others
inquire: "What of the future trade of India, the great part of whose
cotton crop before the war went to Central Europe?"

Sober-minded and farseeing men, in England and elsewhere, believe that,
despite the ravage of her men and trade, Germany will come back
commercially.

"You must not forget," said one of them, "that, no matter how badly she
is beaten, Germany will still be a going business concern. She will have
an immense plant; her genius of efficiency and organisation cannot be
killed. Through her magnificent industrial education system she has
trained millions of boys to take the vacant stools and stands in shop
and mill. England and France have no such reserves. Besides, if we
pauperise Germany, no one--not even Belgium--will get a pound of
indemnity."

You have now seen the moving picture of half a world in process of
significant change, wrought by clash of arms, and facing a complete
economic readjustment with peace. Whether the Paris Pact is practical or
visionary, no matter if England is free trade or protectionist,
regardless of Germany's ability to find herself industrially at once,
one thing we do know--the end of the war will find the Empire of World
Trade molten and in the remaking.

Fresh paths must be shaped; the race will be to the best-prepared.
Whatever our position, be it neutral or belligerent--and no man can
tell which now--we shall face a supreme test of our resource and our
readiness. What can we do to meet this crisis, which will mean continued
prosperity or costly reaction?

Many things; but they must be done now, when immunity from actual
conflict gives us a merciful leeway. More than ever before, we shall
face united business fronts. Therefore, co-operation among competitors
is necessary to a successful foreign trade.

Since the coming trade war will rage round tariffs, it will be well to
heed the re