pe Times, Cape Town, South Africa._

THE GERMAN EAGLE (tearfully): "As bird to bird--surely _you_ won't
desert me?"

THE AMERICAN EAGLE: "Desert you! I'm an eagle, not a vulture!"]

The Chances of Peace and the Problem of Poland

By J. Ellis Barker

[_From The Nineteenth Century and After, Leonard Scott Publishing
Company._]

A century ago, at the Congress of Vienna, the question of Poland proved
extremely difficult to solve. It produced dangerous friction among the
assembled powers, and threatened to lead to the break-up of the
congress. The position became so threatening that, on the 3d of January,
1815, Austria, Great Britain, and France felt compelled to conclude a
secret separate alliance directed against Prussia and Russia, the allies
of Austria and Great Britain in the war against Napoleon. Precautionary
troop movements began, and war among the allies might have broken out
had not, shortly afterward, Napoleon quitted Elba and landed in France.
Fear of the great Corsican reunited the powers.

Because of the great and conflicting interests involved, the question of
Poland may prove of similar importance and difficulty at the congress
which will conclude the present war. Hence, it seems desirable to
consider it carefully and in good time. It is true that the study of the
Polish problem does not seem to be very urgent at the present moment. In
view of the slow progress of the Allies in the east and west, it appears
that the war will be long drawn out. Still, it is quite possible that it
will come to an early and sudden end. Austria-Hungary is visibly tiring
of the hopeless struggle into which she was plunged by Germany, and
which hitherto has brought her nothing but loss, disgrace, and disaster.
After all, the war is bound to end earlier or later in an Austro-German
defeat, and if it should be fought to the bitter end Austria-Hungary
will obviously suffer far more severely than will Germany. A protracted
war, which would lead merely to the lasting impoverishment of Germany,
would bring about the economic annihilation of impecunious Austria.
Besides, while a complete defeat would cause to Germany only the loss of
territories in the east, west, and north which are largely inhabited by
disaffected Poles, Frenchmen, and Danes, and would not very greatly
reduce the purely German population of Germany, it would probably result
in the dissolution of the Dual Monarchy, which lacks a homogeneous
population, an