d it might lead to Austria's disappearance as a great
State. If complete disaster should overwhelm the empire of Francis
Joseph, Hungary would undoubtedly make herself independent. The Dual
Monarchy would become a heap of wreckage, and in the end the German
parts of Austria would probably become a German province, Vienna a
provincial Prussian town, the proud Hapsburgs subordinate German
princelings. If, on the other hand, Austria-Hungary should make quickly
a separate peace with her opponents, she would presumably lose only the
Polish parts of Galicia to the new kingdom of Poland, and Bosnia and
Herzegovina to Serbia; and she might receive most satisfactory
compensation for these losses by the acquisition of the German parts of
Silesia and by the adherence of the largely Roman Catholic South German
States, which have far more in common with Austria than with Protestant
Prussia. As a result of the war, Austria-Hungary might be greatly
strengthened at Germany's cost, provided the monarchy makes peace
without delay. In any case, only by an early peace can the bulk of the
lands of the Hapsburgs be preserved for the ruling house, and can
national bankruptcy be avoided. There is an excellent and most valuable
precedent for such action on Austria's part. Bismarck laid down the
essence of statesmanship in the maxim "Salus Publica Suprema Lex," and
defined in his memoirs the binding power of treaties of alliance by the
phrase "Ultra posse nemo obligatur." Referring particularly to the
Austro-German alliance, he wrote that "no nation is obliged to sacrifice
its existence on the altar of treaty fidelity." Before long the Dual
Monarchy may take advantage of Bismarck's teaching. After all, it cannot
be expected that she should go beyond her strength, and that she should
ruin herself for the sake of Germany, especially as she cannot thereby
save that country from inevitable defeat. Austria-Hungary should feel
particularly strongly impelled to ask for peace without delay, as her
recent and most disastrous defeat in Serbia has exasperated the people
and threatens to lead to risings and revolts not only in the Slavonic
parts of the monarchy but also in Hungary. Civil war may be said to be
in sight.

The Dual Monarchy is threatened besides by the dubious and expectant
attitude of Italy and Rumania. If Austria-Hungary should hesitate much
longer to make peace, Italy and Rumania may find a sufficient pretext
for war and may join the Entent