rty, and security.

That Which Is Seen, and That Which Is Not Seen

In the department of economy, an act, a habit, an institution, a law,
gives birth not only to an effect, but to a series of effects. Of these
effects, the first only is immediate; it manifests itself simultaneously
with its cause--_it is seen_. The others unfold in succession--_they are
not seen_: it is well for us if they are _foreseen_. Between a good and
a bad economist this constitutes the whole difference--the one takes
account of the _visible_ effect; the other takes account both of the
effects which are _seen_ and also of those which it is necessary to
_foresee_. Now this difference is enormous, for it almost always happens
that when the immediate consequence is favourable, the ultimate
consequences are fatal, _and the converse_. Hence it follows that the
bad economist pursues a small present good, which will be followed by a
great evil to come, while the true economist pursues a great good to
come, at the risk of a small present evil.

In fact, it is the same in the science of health, arts, and in that of
morals. If often happens, that the sweeter the first fruit of a habit
is, the more bitter are the consequences. Take, for example, debauchery,
idleness, prodigality. When, therefore, a man, absorbed in the effect
which _is seen_, has not yet learned to discern those which are not
seen, he gives way to fatal habits, not only by inclination, but by
calculation.

This explains the fatally grievous condition of mankind. Ignorance
surrounds its cradle: then its actions are determined by their first
consequences, the only ones which, in its first stage, it can see. It is
only in the long run that it learns to take account of the others. It
has to learn this lesson from two very different masters--experience and
foresight. Experience teaches effectually, but brutally. It makes us
acquainted with all the effects of an action, by causing us to feel
them; and we cannot fail to finish by knowing that fire burns, if we
have burned ourselves. For this rough teacher, I should like, if
possible, to substitute a more gentle one. I mean Foresight. For this
purpose I shall examine the consequences of certain economical
phenomena, by placing in opposition to each other those _which are
seen_, and those _which are not seen_.

I.--The Broken Window.

Have you ever witnessed the anger of the good shopkeeper, James B., when
his careless son hap