lundering and ill fortune, he seized upon the
most unsuitable time that could possibly have been employed for such an
attempt. Something might have been done, perhaps, a temporary
alteration in the dynasty might have been obtained, if energy and
decision had been shown in that momentous interval when Queen Anne lay
dying. But when that time had been allowed to pass, the clear policy
of the Pretender was to permit the fears of Englishmen to go to sleep
for a while, to endeavor to reorganize his plans and his party; to wait
until a certain reaction should set in, a reaction very likely to come
about because of the apparent incapacity and the unattractive character
of George the First, and then at some timely hour, with well-matured
preparations, to strike an energetic blow. George the First was only a
year on the throne when the adherents of James got up a miserable
attempt at an insurrection.

There were three conditions under which, and under which alone, an
insurrection just then would have had a reasonable chance of success.
These conditions were fully recognized and understood by the Jacobite
leaders {119} in England, Scotland, and France. The first was that a
rising should take place at once in England and in Scotland, the second
that the Chevalier in person should take the field, and the third that
France should give positive assistance to the enterprise. The Jacobite
cause was strong in the south-western counties of England, and there
the influence of the Duke of Ormond was strong likewise. The general
arrangement, therefore, in the minds of the Jacobite chiefs was that
James Stuart should make his appearance in Scotland, that at the same
moment the Duke of Ormond should raise the standard of revolt in some
of the south-western counties, and that France should assist the
expedition with men, money, and arms. When James, acting against the
advice of his best counsellors, resolved on striking a blow at once,
two of the necessary conditions were clearly wanting. France was not
willing to give any actual assistance, and Ormond was not ready to
raise the standard of rebellion in England.

Ormond's sudden appearance in Paris struck dismay into the hearts of
the Jacobite counsellors, men and women, there. It had been distinctly
understood that he was to remain in England, and that, if threatened
with arrest, he was to hasten to one of the western counties, where he
and his friends were strong, and strike a sudd