is largely discounted by
Germany's new source of supply. Possibly in the ensuing winter of
1917-18 conditions may get unbearable, but if the Turkish Government
only two years ago massacred more than a million of its subjects, it
would be absurd to expect that the starving of a million more would
produce much effect on the Ministers of the Turkish God of Love.[1] The
people are, of course, told, with suitable statistics, how famine is
decimating England and France, and how the total starvation of those
unfortunate countries is imminent. Indeed, of all the signs of want of
confidence in their German overlords, by far the most promising are the
facts that Talaat and Enver have sent their money out of the country,
and that Jemal the Great has a swelled head. On these facts there is a
certain justifiable optimism to be based. It will do no good to consider
them academically in London; but are there not practical channels to
reach the instincts of the Turkish triumvirate that might be navigated?

[Footnote 1: The following list of prices in Constantinople is of
interest:--

July 1914. July 1917.
Rice, per lb. 2-1/4 d. 3s. 4d.
Milk, per quart 5d. 2s.
Flour, per lb. 3d. 2s. 6d.
Petroleum, per lb. 1d. 4s. 6d.
Pair of boots L1 L8. ]

We need not trouble ourselves with considering what the Allies will
have to do with the Turkish army when once the end of the war comes, for
the collapse of the military party in Turkey, which owes its whole
vitality to Germany, will be perfect and complete. But the economical
future of Turkey is not so plain: at the present moment its bankruptcy
is total. Early in the war Germany drained it of such bullion as it had,
and has since then advanced it about L150,000,000, which, as far as I
can trace, is entirely in German paper, and must be redeemed in gold at
some period (chiefly two years) after the end of the war. That is
wonderful finance, and one marvels that Turkey could have been so far
blinded as to accept it. But I expect that the swallowing of the first
loan was sweetened by a spoonful of jam of this kind. Germany pointed
out that, though England was quite certainly going to lose the war, she
had issued an immense paper coinage which had all the purchasing power
of gold. Germany, on the other hand, with her dear Ally to help her, was
just as certainly going to win the war. How, then, could ther