should England fail,
as he anticipated that she would, in this war, she would hardly emerge
from it in condition to undertake another with France. As for the
colonies themselves, should they win, the character of the Americans
gave augury of their wishing a solid government and therefore
cultivating peace. He uttered an admirable dissertation upon the
relations between colonies and a parent country, and upon the value of
colonies in its bearing upon the present question. In conclusion he
gravely referred to the alarming deficit in the French exchequer as the
strongest of all arguments against incurring the heavy charge of a war
not absolutely unavoidable. "For a necessary war resources could be
found; but war ought to be shunned as the greatest of misfortunes, since
it would render impossible, perhaps forever, a reform absolutely
necessary to the prosperity of the state and the solace of the people."
The king, to whom these wise words were addressed, lived to receive
terrible proof of their truth.

This good advice fell in well with the bent of Louis's mind. For, though
no statesman, he had in this matter a sound instinct that an absolute
monarch aiding rebels to erect a free republic was an anomaly, and a
hazardous contradiction in the natural order of things. But de Vergennes
was the coming man in France, and Turgot no longer had the influence or
the popularity to which his ability entitled him. In May, 1776, on an
ill day for the French monarchy, but a fair one for the American
provinces, this able statesman was ousted from the cabinet. De Vergennes
remained to wield entire control of the policy of the kingdom in this
business, and his triumph was the great good fortune of the colonies.
Yet his design was sufficiently cautious, and strictly limited to the
advantage of his own country. France was not to be compromised, and an
ingenious scheme was arranged.

The firm of Roderigue Hortalez & Co. made sudden appearance in Paris.
Beaumarchais alone conducted its affairs, the most extraordinary
merchant surely who ever engaged in extensive commerce! The capital was
secretly furnished by the Spanish and French governments; about $400,000
the firm had to start with, and later the French government contributed
$200,000 more. De Vergennes was explicit in his language to
Beaumarchais: to Englishmen and Americans alike the affair must be an
"individual speculation." With the capital given him Beaumarchais must
"found a great