main outlook of my writing, I know too well
that, when you come to details, prediction is a matter of hit or miss,
and that I have often missed as well as hit in particulars. "It is all
a matter of guess," said Nelson, when tied down to a specific
decision, "but the world attributes wisdom to him who guesses right."
This is less true of the big questions and broad lines of contemporary
history. There insight can discern really something of tendencies;
enough to guide judgment or suggest reflection. But I am now
sixty-seven, and can recognize in myself a growing conservatism, which
may probably limit me henceforth to bare keeping up with the
procession in the future national march. Perhaps I may lag behind.
With years, speculation as well as action becomes less venturesome,
and I look increasingly to the changeless past as the quiet field for
my future labors.

THE END

FOOTNOTES:

[1] Worcester, quoting from _Falconer's Marine Dictionary_, defines
"Grommet" as "a small ring or wreath, formed of the strand of a rope,
used for various purposes."

[2] J. R. Soley, _The Blockade and the Cruisers_, 1883. Scribner's,
_Navy in the Civil War_.

[3] This statement when written rested on my childhood's memory only.
A few months later there came into my hands a volume of the
publications of the British Navy Records Society, containing the
Recollections of Commander James Anthony Gardner. 1775-1814. Gardner
was at one time shipmates with Culmer, who it appears eventually
received a commission. By Gardner's reckoning he would have been far
along in the forties in 1790. The following is the description of him.
"Billy was about five feet eight or nine, and stooped; hard features,
marked with the small-pox; blind in an eye, and a wen nearly the size
of an egg under his cheek-bone. His dress on a Sunday was a mate's
uniform coat, with brown velvet waistcoat and breeches; boots with
black tops; a gold-laced hat, and a large hanger by his side like the
sword of John-a-Gaunt. He was proud of being the oldest midshipman in
the navy, and looked upon young captains and lieutenants with
contempt."

[4] The _Navy Register_ of 1842 shows the number appointed in 1841 to
have been two hundred and nineteen.

[5] That is, within a quarter of a point on either side of her course.
A "point" of the compass is one-eighth of a right angle; e.g., from
North to East is eight points.

[6] _Naval Letters of Captain Percival Drayton._