his scheme was disturbed yesterday: Mr. Fox, who had sullenly
accepted the seals the day before, more sullenly refused them yesterday.
His object was to be First Commissioner of the Treasury, and Chancellor
of the Exchequer, and consequently to have a share in the election of the
new parliament, and a much greater in the management of it when chosen.
This necessary consequence of his view defeated it; and the Duke of
Newcastle and the Chancellor chose to kick him upstairs into the
Secretaryship of State, rather than trust him with either the election or
the management of the new parliament. In this, considering their
respective situations, they certainly acted wisely; but whether Mr. Fox
has done so, or not, in refusing the seals, is a point which I cannot
determine. If he is, as I presume he is, animated with revenge, and I
believe would not be over scrupulous in the means of gratifying it, I
should have thought he could have done it better, as Secretary of State,
with constant admission into the closet, than as a private man at the
head of an opposition. But I see all these things at too great a distance
to be able to judge soundly of them. The true springs and motives of
political measures are confined within a very narrow circle, and known to
a very few; the good reasons alleged are seldom the true ones: The public
commonly judges, or rather guesses, wrong, and I am now one of that
public. I therefore recommend to you a prudent Pyrrhonism in all matters
of state, until you become one of the wheels of them yourself, and
consequently acquainted with the general motion, at least, of the others;
for as to all the minute and secret springs, that contribute more or less
to the whole machine, no man living ever knows them all, not even he who
has the principal direction of it. As in the human body, there are
innumerable little vessels and glands that have a good deal to do, and
yet escape the knowledge of the most skillful anatomist; he will know
more, indeed, than those who only see the exterior of our bodies, but he
will never know all. This bustle, and these changes at court, far from
having disturbed the quiet and security of your election, have, if
possible, rather confirmed them; for the Duke of Newcastle (I must do him
justice) has, in, the kindest manner imaginable to you, wrote a letter to
Mr. Eliot, to recommend to him the utmost care of your election.

Though the plan of administration is thus unsettled, mine, for