s advocate of war for the sake of gain, it certainly
suggests that the body of trade must automatically and by a sort of
instinct of self-preservation be an element in the nation that makes for
war.

That is the kernel of my thesis;[39] and it is certainly a happy
coincidence that the possibility of its truth seems at last to be
dawning on another writer, and one more expert than myself in the
handling of commercial theory. On the very morning after the last few
sentences were written the following paragraph occurred in Mr. Emil
Davies' "City" article in the _New Statesman_:--[40]

It is only as the reports and accounts for 1915 come out that a
correct idea can be formed of the benefit this catastrophic war has
been to the majority of our large industrial concerns. The
following is a list of companies whose reports and accounts have
appeared during the past few days. The difference between the
profits for the two years shown is even greater than appears, for
in practically every case the 1915 profit is stated after allowing
for the excess profits tax, additional depreciation or extra
reserves, most companies now adopting these and other devices to
render less conspicuous their war-time prosperity.

1914 1915
L L
Smithfield and Argentine Meat Co. 25,732 142,055
Waring and Gillow 35,217 100,885
Projectile Co. 30,739 194,136
Lanarkshire Steel 28,144 45,985
Frederick Leyland Steamship 337,188 1,196,683
Sutherland Steamship 94,600 295,200

Waring and Gillow's sudden prosperity is not due to any better
business in the ordinary furniture trade, but to war contracts. The
Projectile Company figures are astonishing even for an armament
company; after applying L47,500 in satisfying the balance of the
prior claims of the Debentures, the Ordinary Shares receive their
first dividend--one of 50 per cent. No sane man would accuse
leaders of these great industrial concerns of doing anything to
bring about an outbreak of war; many of them have, indeed, paid a
heavy price for their prosperity in the shape of the loss of sons
or near relatives; but whe