f commercial expansion and contraction. If the average prices
are taken for these three cycles separately (1885-95), 1895-1902,
1902-08) it will be seen that there has been a steady advance in
prices. For the succeeding cycles lead on the London Exchange,[*]
the freest of the world's markets was L12 12_s._ 4_d._, L13 3_s._
7_d._, and L17 7_s._ 0_d._ respectively; zinc, L17 14_s._ 10_d._,
L19 3_s._ 8_d._, and L23 3_s._ 0_d._; and standard copper, L48 16_s._
0_d._, L59 10_s._ 0_d._, and L65 7_s._ 0_d._ It seems, therefore,
that a higher standard of prices can be assumed as the basic and
normal than would be indicated if the general average of, say,
twenty years were taken. During this period, the world's gold output
has nearly quadrupled, and, whether the quantitative theory of
gold be accepted or not, it cannot be denied that there has been
a steady increase in the price of commodities. In all base-metal
mining it is well to remember that the production of these metals
is liable to great stimulus at times from the discovery of new
deposits or new processes of recovery from hitherto unprofitable
ores. It is therefore for this reason hazardous in the extreme
to prophesy what prices will be far in the future, even when the
industrial weather is clear. But some basis must be arrived at,
and from the available outlook it would seem that the following
metal prices are justifiable for some time to come, provided the
present tariff schedules are maintained in the United States:

[Footnote *: All London prices are based on the long ton of 2,240
lbs. Much confusion exists in the copper trade as to the classification
of the metal. New York prices are quoted in electrolytic and "Lake";
London's in "Standard." "Standard" has now become practically an
arbitrary term peculiar to London, for the great bulk of copper
dealt in is "electrolytic" valued considerably over "Standard."]

==========================================================================
| Lead | Spelter | Copper | Tin | Silver
|------------|----------|----------|----------|---------------
|London| N.Y.|Lon.| N.Y.|Lon.| N.Y.|Lon.| N.Y.| Lon. | N.Y.
| Ton |Pound|Ton |Pound|Ton |Pound|Ton |Pound|Per oz.|Per oz.
------------|------|-----|----|-----|----|-----|----|-----|-------|-------
Basic Price | L11. |$.035|L17 |$.040|L52 |$.115|L100|$.220| 22_d._|$.44
Normal Price| 13.5| .043| 21 | .050| 65 | .140|