ke the direction of the
Bosphorous, where a campaign might be expected to awaken religious and
warlike enthusiasm among the masses? To these questions I cannot give
any answer, because so much depends on the internal consequences of the
present war, and on accidental circumstances which no one can at
present foresee. I have always desired, and still desire, that we should
cultivate friendly relations with our great rival, and that we should
learn to appreciate the many good qualities of her people; but I have at
the same time always desired that we should keep a watchful eye on
her irrepressible tendency to expand, and that we should take timely
precautions against any unprovoked aggression, however justifiable it
may seem to her from the point of view of her own national interests.

CHAPTER XXXIX

THE PRESENT SITUATION

Reform or Revolution?--Reigns of Alexander II. and Nicholas II.
Compared and Contrasted--The Present Opposition--Various Groups--The
Constitutionalists--Zemski Sobors--The Young Tsar Dispels
Illusions--Liberal Frondeurs--Plehve's Repressive Policy--Discontent
Increased by the War--Relaxation and Wavering under Prince
Mirski--Reform Enthusiasm--The Constitutionalists Formulate their
Demands--The Social Democrats--Father Gapon's Demonstration--The
Socialist-Revolutionaries--The Agrarian Agitators--The
Subject-Nationalities--Numerical Strength of the Various Groups--All
United on One Point--Their Different Aims--Possible Solutions of the
Crisis--Difficulties of Introducing Constitutional Regime--A Strong Man
Wanted--Uncertainty of the Future.

Is history about to repeat itself, or are we on the eve of a cataclysm?
Is the reign of Nicholas II. to be, in its main lines, a repetition of
the reign of Alexander II., or is Russia about to enter on an entirely
new phase of her political development?

To this momentous question I do not profess to give a categorical
answer. If it be true, even in ordinary times, that "of all forms of
human folly, prediction is the most gratuitous," it is especially true
at a moment like the present, when we are constantly reminded of the
French proverb that there is nothing certain but the unforeseen. All
I can hope to do is to throw a little light on the elements of the
problem, and allow the reader to draw his own conclusions.

Between the present situation and the early part of Alexander II.'s
reign there is undoubtedly a certain analogy. In both cases we find
i