l economic disorganization prevalent throughout Central
Europe,--a disorganization which would be increased rather than
diminished by the establishment of new forms of economic life. Even if
such an organization were perfected, it must remain, for a long time to
come, on a defensive basis.

3. _The Yellow Peril_

The "yellow peril" thus far is little more than the Japanese menace to
British and American trade in the Far East. The Japanese Archipelago is
woefully deficient in coal, iron, petroleum, water power and
agricultural land. The country is over-populated and must depend for
its supplies of food and raw materials upon continental Asia. There
seems to be no probability that Japan and China can make any effective
working agreement in the near future that will constitute an active
menace to the supremacy of the white race. Alone Japan is too weak in
resources and too sparse in population. Combined with China she would be
formidable, but her military policy in Korea and in the Shantung
Province have made any effective cooperation with China at least
temporarily impossible.

Furthermore, the Japanese are not seeking world conquest. On the
contrary, they are bent upon maintaining their traditional aloofness by
having a Monroe Doctrine for the East. This doctrine will be summed up
in the phrase, "The East for the Easterners,"--the easterners being the
Japanese. Such a policy would prove a serious menace to the trade of the
United States and of Great Britain. It would prove still more of a
hindrance to the investment of American and British capital in the very
promising Eastern enterprises, and would close the door on the Western
efforts to develop the immense industrial resources of China. The recent
"Chinese Consortium," in which Japan joined with great reluctance,
suggests that the major capitalist powers have refused to recognize the
exclusive right of Japan to the economic advantages of the Far East. How
seriously this situation will be taken by the United States and Great
Britain depends in part upon the vigor with which Japan prosecutes her
claims and in part upon the preoccupation of these two great powers with
Bolshevism in Europe and with their own competitive activities in ship
building, trade, finance and armament.

4. _The British and the American Empires_

The two remaining major forces in world economics and politics are the
British Empire and the American Empire,--the mistress of the world, and
h