anization of the Empire on a liberal
basis of government, and though it would be folly to count much on its
success, it may conceivably succeed. Mohammedanism would not there, as
at Constantinople, be found a barrier to reform, for Persian Shiism is
an eminently elastic creed, and on the contrary may, it is thought, be
made the instrument of a social reformation; only, as I have said it
would be folly to count on its success; and there are certain moral
defects in Persian character which do not encourage lookers-on. Shiite
Mohammedanism, however, whether Persia be absorbed or not by Russia, is
of little importance in a general review of Islam's future, and may
safely be dismissed as not directly relevant to the main question before
us.

Admitting, then, the probability, nay, the certainty, of considerable
political and territorial losses northwards, caused by the violent
pressure of a hostile Europe, let us see what yet remains to Islam as
her certain heritage, and how the changes foreshadowed may affect her
general life. I cannot myself find any cause of despair for Mussulmans
in the prospect of a curtailment of their religious area in the
directions indicated, or any certain reason of exultation for their
enemies in the thought that with the fall of Constantinople Islam, too,
will have fallen. On the contrary, I see in the coming destruction of
the Ottoman supremacy, and in the exclusion of the northern races, even
at the cost of their religious support, from the counsels of the
faithful, an element of hope in the future far outweighing the immediate
chagrin which may be caused by loss of sovereignty or loss of
population.

The Mohammedan population which the fall of Constantinople would
conceivably cut off from the main body could not at most number more
than some twenty millions, and when we remember that this is no more
than a tithe of the whole Mussulman census, and that the proportion is a
constantly decreasing one, it will be evident that there is little
ground for looking at the loss as one necessarily fatal to religion. The
northern races still give to Mohammedanism an appearance of physical
strength; but it is an appearance only, and it is given at the cost of
its intellectual vigour. The political success of the Turks has for
centuries thrown Islam off its moral equilibrium, and their
disappearance from its supreme counsels will give weight to races more
worthy of representing religious interests. Constant