ould have
regarded as a defeat. The collapse of the militarists and of
Hohenzollernism would have ensued. What the German oligarchy desired was
a peace which they could picture to their deluded people as a triumph,
one that would enable them to extricate themselves at the smallest
possible cost from what seemed a desperate position, to escape the
penalties of their crimes, to emerge from their failure with a Germany
still powerful, both in economic resources and in arms, and to set to
work again industriously preparing for a renewal of the struggle at a
more favourable time. If negotiations resulted in such a truce, the
German purpose would be splendidly served; even if they failed, however,
the gain for Germany would still be great. Germany could appear as the
belligerent which desired peace and the Entente could perhaps be
manoeuvred into the position of the side responsible for continuing the
war. The consideration which was chiefly at stake in these tortuous
proceedings was public opinion in the United States. Americans do not
yet understand the extent to which their country was regarded as the
determining power. Both the German and the British Foreign Offices
clearly understood, in August, 1914, that the United States, by throwing
its support, especially its economic support, to one side or the other,
could settle the result. Probably Germany grasped this point even more
clearly than did Great Britain, for, from the beginning, she constantly
nourished the hope that she could embroil the United States and Great
Britain--a calamity which would have given victory to the German arms.
In every German move there were thus several motives, and one of the
chief purposes of the subterranean campaigns which she now started for
peace was the desire of putting Britain in the false light of prolonging
the war for aggressive purposes, and thus turning to herself that public
opinion in this country which was so outspoken on the side of the
Allies. Such public opinion, if it could be brought to regard Germany in
a tolerant spirit, could easily be fanned into a flame by the disputes
over blockades and shipping, and the power of the United States might
thus be used for the advancement of the Fatherland. On the other hand,
if Germany could obtain a peace which would show a profit for her
tremendous effort, then the negotiations would have accomplished their
purpose.

Conditions at Washington favoured operations of this kind. Secretar