net seems to suffer a sort of paralysis. Lord Kitchener's
speech in the House of Lords, explaining the military situation,
reads like a series of month-old bulletins and was a great
disappointment. Mr. Asquith's corresponding speech in the House
seemed to lack complete frankness. The nation feels that it is
being kept in the dark, and all the military information that it
gets is discouraging. Sir Edward Grey, as philosophic and enduring
a man as I know, seems much more depressed than I have ever known
him to be; Bryce is very very far from cheerful; Plunkett[20], whom
also you know, is in the dumps--it's hard to find a cheerful or a
hopeful man.

The secrecy of official life has become so great and successful
that prophecy of political changes must be mere guess work. But,
unless good news come from the Dardanelles in particular, I have a
feeling that Asquith may resign--be forced out by the gradual
pressure of public opinion; that Lloyd George will become Prime
Minister, and that (probably) Sir Edward Grey may resign. Yet I
cannot take the prevailing military discouragement at its face
value. The last half million men and the last million pounds will
decide the contest, and the Allies will have these. This very
depression strengthens the nation's resolution to a degree that
they for the moment forget. The blockade and the armies in the
field will wear Germany down--not absolutely conquer her, but wear
her down--probably in another year.

In the meantime our prestige (if that be the right word), in
British judgment, is gone. As they regard it, we have permitted
the Germans to kill our citizens, to carry on a world-wide underhand
propaganda from our country (as well as in it), for which they have
made no apology and no reparation but only vague assurances for the
future now that their submarine fleet has been almost destroyed.
They think that we are credulous to the point of simplicity to
accept any assurances that Bernstorff may give--in a word, that the
peace-at-any-price sentiment so dominates American opinion and the
American Government that we will submit to any indignity or
insult--that we will learn the Germans' real character when it is
too late to save our honour or dignity. There is no doubt of the
definiteness or depth of this opini