nsequences, and the Carnarvon episode was a pivot. The
effect upon the mind of Mr. Parnell was easy to foresee. Was I not
justified, he asked long afterwards, in supposing that Lord Carnarvon,
holding the views that he now indicated, would not have been made viceroy
unless there was a considerable feeling in the cabinet that his views were
right?(147) Could he imagine that the viceroy would be allowed to talk
home rule to him--however shadowy and vague the words--unless the prime
minister considered such a solution to be at any rate well worth
discussing? Why should he not believe that the alliance formed in June to
turn Mr. Gladstone out of office and eject Lord Spencer from Ireland, had
really blossomed from being a mere lobby manoeuvre and election expedient,
into a serious policy adopted by serious statesmen? Was it not certain
that in such remarkable circumstances Mr. Parnell would throughout the
election confidently state the national demand at its very highest?

In 1882 and onwards up to the Reform Act of 1885, Mr. Parnell had been
ready to advocate the creation of a central council at Dublin for
administrative purposes merely. This he thought would be a suitable
achievement for a party that numbered only thirty-five members. But the
assured increase of his strength at the coming election made all the
difference. When semi-official soundings were taken from more than one
liberal quarter after the fall of the Gladstone government, it was found
that Mr. Parnell no longer countenanced provisional reforms. After the
interview with Lord Carnarvon, the mercury rose rapidly to the top of the
tube. Larger powers of administration were not enough. The claim for
legislative power must now be brought boldly to the front. In unmistakable
terms, the Irish leader stated the Irish demand, and posed both problem
and solution. He now declared his conviction that the great and sole work
of himself and his friends in the new parliament would be the restoration
of a national parliament of their own, to do the things which they had
been vainly asking the imperial parliament to do for them.(148)

III

When politicians ruminate upon the disastrous schism that followed Mr.
Gladstone's attempt to deal with the Irish question in 1886, they ought
closely to study the general election of 1885. In that election, though
leading men foresaw the approach of a marked Irish crisis, and awaited the
outcome of events with an overshadowing se