he death rate is only one factor in the vital equation. The birth
rate is equally important. Mr. Hoffman concedes, with reluctant
reservation, that the colored birth rate may be greater than that of the
whites. "That the birth rate of the Negroes is in excess of that of the
white population is probably true even at the present time, at least as
compared with the native whites."[21] This is indeed a very feeble
admission of a very obvious fact. Mr. Hoffman contends that the death
rate of the Negro race is much greater than that of the whites. It has
already been shown that, leaving immigration out of account, the
increase in the Negro population is greater than that of the white race.
How can these two facts be accounted for except it be on the basis of a
higher birth rate for the blacks? Mr. Hoffman will have either to alter
his estimates or mend his logic.

Direct testimony on this subject must have been known to Mr. Hoffman. Of
course no one is qualified to write on vital statistics in America who
is not familiar with the investigation of Dr. Billings. Let the reader
compare the following quotation as to the relative birth rate of the
races, and, noting date of data upon which the conclusion is based,
decide for himself as to the ingenuousness of Mr. Hoffman's reluctant
admission: "Dr. Billings, in his luminous report on the vital statistics
of the United States (1886) shows that 1000 colored women (age from 15
to 49) give birth to 164 children, and 1000 white women to only 127,
yearly; that is to say, three colored women have as many children as
four white."[22]

IS THE NEGRO THREATENED WITH EXTINCTION.

Before Mr. Hoffman's conclusion as to the threatening aspect of the high
death rate of the Negro race can be accepted, several questions must be
answered by him.

1. Is the death rate of the colored race higher than that of a
corresponding class of whites subject to the same moral and social
environment? The general opinion is that it is not; nor does the author
attempt to prove the contrary. In discussing this question Dr. John S.
Billings states: "If we could separate the vital statistics of the poor
and ignorant whites, the tenement house population of our Northern
cities, from those of the mass of the white population we should
undoubtedly find a high rate of mortality in this class, and especially
in infancy and childhood."[23]

2. Is the high death rate for the cities sustained throughout the
country at