hat the induction of cancers would range from 75 to 300 cases
per megaton for each billion people in the post-test generation.

If we apply these very rough yardsticks to a large-scale nuclear war in
which 10,000 megatons of nuclear force are detonated, the effects on a
world population of 5 billion appear enormous. Allowing for
uncertainties about the dynamics of a possible nuclear war,
radiation-induced cancers and genetic damage together over 30 years are
estimated to range from 1.5 to 30 million for the world population as a
whole. This would mean one additional case for every 100 to 3,000
people or about 1/2 percent to 15 percent of the estimated peacetime
cancer death rate in developed countries. As will be seen, moreover,
there could be other, less well understood effects which would
drastically increase suffering and death.

ALTERATIONS OF THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

A nuclear war would involve such prodigious and concentrated short term
release of high temperature energy that it is necessary to consider a
variety of potential environmental effects.

It is true that the energy of nuclear weapons is dwarfed by many
natural phenomena. A large hurricane may have the power of a million
hydrogen bombs. But the energy release of even the most severe weather
is diffuse; it occurs over wide areas, and the difference in
temperature between the storm system and the surrounding atmosphere is
relatively small. Nuclear detonations are just the opposite--highly
concentrated with reaction temperatures up to tens of millions of
degrees Fahrenheit. Because they are so different from natural
processes, it is necessary to examine their potential for altering the
environment in several contexts.

A. High Altitude Dust

It has been estimated that a 10,000-megaton war with half the weapons
exploding at ground level would tear up some 25 billion cubic meters of
rock and soil, injecting a substantial amount of fine dust and
particles into the stratosphere. This is roughly twice the volume of
material blasted loose by the Indonesian volcano, Krakatoa, whose
explosion in 1883 was the most powerful terrestrial event ever
recorded. Sunsets around the world were noticeably reddened for
several years after the Krakatoa eruption, indicating that large
amounts of volcanic dust had entered the stratosphere.

Subsequent studies of large volcanic explosions, such as Mt. Agung on
Bali in 1963, have raised the possibility that l