tynine sail of the line ready for sea. The blockade of Gibraltar
is continued with tolerable success hitherto. The Count d'Estaing was
not arrived in France by the last advices. This delay will retard the
operations intended for our succor.

The death of the Empress Queen will probably kindle the flame of war
in Europe, though perhaps not in the ensuing year. I am told from good
authority the Emperor is favorably disposed to England. His Ambassador
and Mr Cumberland are very intimate, and see each other every day. The
residence here of the latter is extraordinary in the present situation
of the two nations, and can only be accounted for on the principles,
which I had the honor to mention in former letters. If I may be
allowed to conjecture, I think Holland will be sooner or later
involved in the war, and that orders have already been given by the
Court of England to attack their possessions in the East Indies. This
however is but a conjecture, although grounded on some share of
political evidence.

The British Parliament is prorogued to the 23d of January. Their grand
fleet is at sea. Mr Trumbull has been arrested in England, and several
Americans obliged to fly and abscond, among whom there is one of my
correspondents. I have received advice, that several were included in
the number to be arrested, whom it was not the intention of Government
to seize, in order to give them an opportunity of returning to America
with more eclat, to be in a situation of rendering greater services to
Great Britain. I hope this advice is without foundation, but having
received it, I think it my duty to communicate it, because
circumspection can do us no material injury. M. Gardoqui will
scarcely take his departure until all negotiations are at an end, and
the campaign shall have commenced.

I have the honor to be, &c.

WILLIAM CARMICHAEL.

_P. S._ Sir Joseph Yorke has presented another Memorial to the States,
more insolent than the former. The armed neutrality propose to have
forty sail of the line next spring in the ports of Holland.

W. C.

* * * * *

TO ROBERT R. LIVINGSTON.

Madrid, February 18th, 1782.

Sir,

I have just had the pleasure of receiving your letter of the 20th of
December, and seize the earliest op