prophecy and with
each additional month of the Civil War there was witnessed an increase
of the forces employed and a psychological change in the people whereby
war seemed to have become a normal state of society. The American Civil
War, as regards continuity, numbers of men steadily engaged, resources
employed, and persistence of the combatants, was the "Great War," to
date, of all modern conflicts. Not only British, but nearly all foreign
observers were of the opinion by midsummer of 1864, after an apparent
check to Grant in his campaign toward Richmond, that all America had
become engaged in a struggle from which there was scant hope of
emergence by a decisive military victory. There was little knowledge of
the steady decline of the resources of the South even though Jefferson
Davis in a message to the Confederate Congress in February, 1864, had
spoken bitterly of Southern disorganization[1197]. Yet this belief in
stalemate in essence still postulated an ultimate Southern victory, for
the function of the Confederacy was, after all, to _resist_ until its
independence was recognized. Ardent friends of the North in England both
felt and expressed confidence in the outcome, but the general attitude
of neutral England leaned rather to faith in the powers of indefinite
Southern resistance, so loudly voiced by Southern champions.

There was now one element in the situation, however, that hampered these
Southern champions. The North was at last fully identified with the
cause of emancipation; the South with the perpetuation of slavery. By
1864, it was felt to be impossible to remain silent on this subject and
even in the original constitution and address of the Southern
Independence Association a clause was adopted expressing a hope for the
gradual extinction of slavery[1198]. This brought Mason some
heartburnings and he wrote to Spence in protest, the latter's reply
being that he also agreed that the South ought not to be offered
gratuitous advice on what was purely "an internal question," but that
the topic was full of difficulties and the clause would have to stand,
at least in some modified form. At Southern public meetings, also, there
arose a tendency to insert in resolutions similar expressions. "In
Manchester," Spence wrote, "Mr. Lees, J.P., and the strongest man on the
board, brought forward a motion for an address on this subject. I went
up to Manchester purposely to quash it and I did so effectually[1199]."

Nor