at remains--and it is a question the future alone
will solve--is the particular point at which this ancient and overgrown
stronghold of war, now being invested so vigorously from so many sides,
will finally be overthrown, whether from within or from without, whether
by its own inherent weakness, by the persuasive reasonableness of
developing civilization, by the self-interest of the commercial and
financial classes, or by the ruthless indignation of the proletariat.
That is a problem still insoluble, but it is not impossible that some
already living may witness its solution.

Two centuries ago the Abbe de Saint-Pierre set forth his scheme for a
federation of the States of Europe, which meant, at that time, a
federation of all the civilised states of the world. It was the age of
great ideas, scattered abroad to germinate in more practical ages to
come. The amiable Abbe enjoyed all the credit of his large and
philanthropic conceptions. But no one dreamed of realizing them, and the
forces which alone could realize them had not yet appeared above the
horizon.[233] In this matter, at all events, the world has progressed,
and a federation of the States of the world is no longer the mere
conception of a philosophic dreamer. The first step will be taken when
two of the leading countries of the world--and it would be most
reasonable for the states having the closest community of origin and
language to take the initiative--resolve to submit all their differences
without reserve to arbitration. As soon as a third power of magnitude
joined this federation the nucleus would be constituted of a world
state. Such a state would be able to impose peace on even the most
recalcitrant outside states, for it would furnish that "visible power to
keep them in awe," which Hobbes rightly declared to be indispensable; it
could even, in the last resort, if necessary, enforce peace by war. Thus
there might still be war in the world. But there would be no wars that
were not Holy Wars. There are other methods than war of enforcing peace,
and these such a federation of great states would be easily able to
bring to bear on even the most warlike of states, but the necessity of a
mighty armed international force would remain for a long time to come.
To suppose, as some seem to suppose, that the establishment of
arbitration in place of war means immediate disarmament is an idle
dream. At Conferences of the English Labour Party on this question, the
most