ed connection between a low birth-rate and a
high social standing might have been entirely accounted for sixty years
ago by postponement of marriage, and that such postponement may still
account for 50 per cent of it.[122]

It is not enough, however, to consider the mechanism by which the
birth-rate declines; to realize the significance of the decline we must
consider the causes which set the mechanism in action.

We begin to obtain a truer insight into the meaning of the curve of a
country's birth-rate when we realize that it is in relation with the
industrial and commercial activity of the country.[123] It is sometimes
stated that a high birth-rate goes with a high degree of national
prosperity. That, however, is scarcely the case; we have to look into
the matter a little more closely. And, when we do so, we find that, not
only is the statement of a supposed connection between a high birth-rate
and a high degree of prosperity an imperfect statement; it is altogether
misleading.

If, in the first place, we attempt to consider the state of things among
savages, we find, indeed, great variations, and the birth-rate is not
infrequently low. But, on the whole, it would appear, the marriage-rate,
the birth-rate, and, it may be added, the death-rate are all alike high.
Karl Ranke has investigated the question with considerable care among
the Trumai and Nahuqua Indians of Central Brazil.[124] These tribes are
yet totally uncontaminated by contact with European influences;
consumption and syphilis are alike unknown. In the two villages he
investigated in detail, Ranke found that every man over twenty-five
years of age was married, and that the only unmarried woman he
discovered was feeble-minded. The average size of the families of those
women who were over forty years of age was between five and six
children, while, on the other hand, the mortality among children was
great, and a relatively small proportion of the population reached old
age. We see therefore that, among these fairly typical savages, living
under simple natural conditions, the fertility of the women is as high
as it is among all but the most prolific of European peoples; while, in
striking contrast with European peoples, among whom a large percentage
of the population never marry, and of those who do, many have no
children, practically every man and woman both marries and produces
children.

If we leave savages out of the question and return to Europe, it