other words, the chances of
success can scarcely ever be great enough to justify the risk. Everything
was in favour of the Japanese. Orders had been issued in the Russian
squadron for two or three nights previously to prepare for a torpedo
attack, but so low had discipline fallen, that the orders were obeyed in a
very perfunctory manner. Guns were not loaded, their crews were not at
quarters, nor were the nets got out. The only real precaution taken was
that two destroyers and no more had been sent out as guard patrol, but even
they were forbidden to fire on anything they met until they had reported to
the admiral or had themselves been fired on. Defence against a surprise
attack could scarcely have been more feeble, and yet so high was the
nervous tension in the attacking force, that it proved stronger than could
reasonably have been expected. The mere existence of the patrol and the
necessity of evading it threw the Japanese approach into a confusion from
which it was unable to recover entirely, and the attack lost its essential
momentum and cohesion. Again, defective as were the arrangements in the
squadron itself, and lax as were its training and discipline, no torpedo
hits were made, so far as we can judge, after the Russian guns and
searchlights got into play.

Such development of strength in the defence seems inherent in the
conditions of minor attack, and there appears to be no reason for expecting
better results for such attacks in normal cases. But in deducing principles
from the Port Arthur case, it must always be remembered that it was far
from normal. It was a blow before declaration, when the menace of strained
relations, though realised, had been almost entirely ignored by the
Russians. In such exceptional and almost incredible circumstances a minor
attack might always be counted on for a certain measure of success. To this
we have to add the fact that the Russian squadron was not ordinarily
efficient, but appears to have fallen into a lax condition such as could
scarcely recur in the case of any other naval Power.

Finally, we must ask what, with every condition abnormally in favour of the
attack, was the actual material result? Did it have any real influence on
the ultimate question of command? It is true that it so far swung the
balance in favour of the Japanese that they were able to exercise the local
control long enough to land their troops and isolate Port Arthur. But the
Japanese plan for securing