ntine Republic. It is by these blows at the
food supply that the Germans expect to make the greatest impression upon
England. Short of actual invasion, the stoppage of supplies is the only
method by which the Germans can inflict suffering upon England.

[Sidenote: Bulgaria ally of Germany.]

[Sidenote: All Balkan states weakened by Balkan War.]

No one in Berlin or Constantinople has forgotten the existence of the
Balkans. Servian enmity, Greek hatred for the Turk, are only too
obvious; Bulgaria is believed to be entirely faithful to the German
interests; Roumania has never been very trustworthy, and has at times
been an ally of both the coalitions in Europe. The ability of the Turk,
of course, to hold Constantinople and above all to take the offensive
would depend upon the continued neutrality or alliance of the Balkan
States. Combined, they are amply strong enough to overrun Turkey in
Europe and probably to invade Asia Minor in force. All the Balkan States
except Roumania--which is hardly a Balkan State--were very much weakened
in men and in resources by the late Balkan wars, and will probably have
considerable difficulty in obtaining any quantity of supplies from
foreign countries, though we are told of large purchases by the Greeks
in the United States. The fact, however, that the Turk has taken the
offensive against Egypt and Persia makes it extremely probable that the
Balkan hatreds have offset each other. Bulgaria's existence probably
depends upon Austrian protection. Roumania is probably afraid to take
the field with Bulgaria, Turkey, Russia, and Austria against her, while
the Greeks and Servians have still to recover from the recent wars. It
is probable, therefore, that, Bulgaria and Roumania being neutral,
Servia at war with Austria, Turkey can take from Greece Salonika and
possibly Macedonia. Should the war in Europe progress favorably for
Germany, the attitude of the Balkan States toward Germany would be
influenced and a scramble would ensue to join the victor, which would
probably result in the extinction of Servia and Greece and the
strengthening of Bulgaria and Turkey. Naturally, the Turk would retake
the islands in the AEgean Sea which are now in Italy's hands.

[Sidenote: Turkey's position if Germany wins in Europe.]

Let us suppose that all goes as they hope: that the Germans win in
Europe; that the Turks and Bulgarians take control of the Balkans; that
the Russians are excluded from Persia, and th