are the
conjectures why the South-Sea directors have suffered the cloud to break
so early. I made no doubt but they would do so when they found it to their
advantage. They have stretched credit so far beyond what it would bear,
that specie proves insufficient to support it. Their most considerable men
have drawn out, securing themselves by the losses of the deluded,
thoughtless numbers, whose understandings have been overruled by avarice
and the hope of making mountains out of mole-hills. Thousands of families
will be reduced to beggary. The consternation is inexpressible--the rage
beyond description, and the case altogether so desperate, that I do not
see any plan or scheme so much as thought of for averting the blow, so
that I cannot pretend to guess what is next to be done." Ten days
afterwards, the stock still falling, he writes: "The company have yet come
to no determination, for they are in such a wood that they know not which
way to turn. By several gentlemen lately come to town, I perceive the very
name of a South-Sea-man grows abominable in every country. A great many
goldsmiths are already run off, and more will daily. I question whether
one-third, nay, one-fourth of them can stand it. From the very beginning,
I founded my judgment of the whole affair upon the unquestionable maxim,
that ten millions (which is more than our running cash) could not
circulate two hundred millions, beyond which our paper credit extended.
That, therefore, whenever that should become doubtful, be the cause what
it would, our noble state machine must inevitably fall to the ground."

On the 12th of September, at the earnest solicitation of Mr. Secretary
Craggs, several conferences were held between the directors of the South
Sea and the directors of the Bank. A report which was circulated, that the
latter had agreed to circulate six millions of the South-Sea company's
bonds, caused the stock to rise to six hundred and seventy; but in the
afternoon, as soon as the report was known to be groundless, the stock
fell again to five hundred and eighty; the next day to five hundred and
seventy, and so gradually to four hundred.[20]

[20] Gay (the poet), in that disastrous year, had a present from
young Craggs of some South-Sea stock, and once supposed
himself to be master of twenty thousand pounds. His friends
persuaded him to sell his share, but he dreamed of dignity
and splendour, and could not hear