problems of the petroleum industry seem to the writer to be of rather
different nature: first, whether the discovery and winning of the oil
can be made to keep pace with the enormous acceleration of demand; and
second, the adjustment of political and financial control of oil
resources, the possession of which is becoming so increasingly vital to
national prosperity.

In regard to the first question, it is a much more difficult problem
today to locate and develop a supply of oil to replace the annual world
production (recently half a billion barrels), than it was twenty years
ago, when it was necessary for this purpose to find only one-fifth this
amount; and if the demand is unchecked, it will be still more difficult
to replace the three-quarters of a billion barrels of oil which will
doubtless be required in a very few years. Regardless of the amount of
oil actually in the ground, it is entirely possible that physical
limitations on its rate of discovery and recovery will prevent its being
made available as fast as necessary to meet the increasing demand. This
fact is likely to make itself felt through increase of price. Other
natural results should be the development of substitutes, such as
alcohol or benzol for gasoline; the larger recovery of oil from oil
shales; and the general speeding up of conservational measures of
various kinds. These are all palliatives and not essential remedies. To
make enough alcohol to substitute for the gasoline now coming from oil
would use a very considerable fraction of the world's food supply. To
make enough benzol (a by-product of coke) to replace gasoline would
necessitate the manufacture of many times the amount of coke now
required by the world's industries. To develop the oil shale industry to
a point where it could supply anything like the amount of oil now
derived from oil pools would mean the building of great plants,
including towns, railroads, and other equipment, equivalent to the
plants of the coal mining industry. To apply any one of the various
conservational measures discussed on later pages would only temporarily
alleviate the situation.

The question of political and financial control of oil supplies may be
illustrated by particular reference to the United States. On present
figures it appears that within three to five years the peak of
production in this country will be passed; and at the present rate of
production the life of the reserves may not be over seventeen