he beliefs are created, the mind cannot
make them true or false, except in the special case where they concern
future things which are within the power of the person believing, such
as catching trains. What makes a belief true is a _fact_, and this fact
does not (except in exceptional cases) in any way involve the mind of
the person who has the belief.

Having now decided what we _mean_ by truth and falsehood, we have next
to consider what ways there are of knowing whether this or that belief
is true or false. This consideration will occupy the next chapter.

CHAPTER XIII. KNOWLEDGE, ERROR, AND PROBABLE OPINION

The question as to what we mean by truth and falsehood, which we
considered in the preceding chapter, is of much less interest than the
question as to how we can know what is true and what is false. This
question will occupy us in the present chapter. There can be no doubt
that _some_ of our beliefs are erroneous; thus we are led to inquire
what certainty we can ever have that such and such a belief is not
erroneous. In other words, can we ever _know_ anything at all, or do we
merely sometimes by good luck believe what is true? Before we can attack
this question, we must, however, first decide what we mean by 'knowing',
and this question is not so easy as might be supposed.

At first sight we might imagine that knowledge could be defined as 'true
belief'. When what we believe is true, it might be supposed that we had
achieved a knowledge of what we believe. But this would not accord
with the way in which the word is commonly used. To take a very trivial
instance: If a man believes that the late Prime Minister's last name
began with a B, he believes what is true, since the late Prime Minister
was Sir Henry Campbell Bannerman. But if he believes that Mr. Balfour
was the late Prime Minister, he will still believe that the late Prime
Minister's last name began with a B, yet this belief, though true,
would not be thought to constitute knowledge. If a newspaper, by an
intelligent anticipation, announces the result of a battle before any
telegram giving the result has been received, it may by good fortune
announce what afterwards turns out to be the right result, and it may
produce belief in some of its less experienced readers. But in spite of
the truth of their belief, they cannot be said to have knowledge. Thus
it is clear that a true belief is not knowledge when it is deduced from
a false belief.

In like