ispensable. The greatest possible
achievement in this direction would be an abandonment of vicious
restraints on population and a general increase of the forethought and
the self-command which even now constitute the principal reliance for
holding the birth rate within prudent limits.

_The Working of Malthusianism in Short Periods as Contrasted with an
Opposite Tendency in Long Ones._--There is little doubt that by a long
course of technical improvement, increasing capital, and rising wages,
the laboring class of the more prosperous countries have become
accustomed to a standard of living that is generally well sustained
and in most of these countries tends to rise. There is also little
uncertainty that a retarded growth of population has contributed
somewhat to this result. One of the facts which Malthus observed is
consistent with this general tendency. Even though the trend of the
line which represents the standard of living be steadily upward, the
rise of actual wages may proceed unevenly, by quick forward movements
and pauses or halts, as the general state of business is flourishing
or depressed. In "booming" times wages rise and in hard times they
fall, though the upward movements are greater than the downward ones
and the total result is a gain.

Now, such a quick rise in wages is followed by an increase in the
number of marriages and a quick fall is followed by a reduction of the
number. The birth rate is somewhat higher in the good times than it is
in the bad times. Young men who have a standard of income which they
need to attain before taking on themselves the care of wife and
children find themselves suddenly in the receipt of such an income and
marry accordingly. There is not time for the standard itself
materially to change before this quick increase of marriages takes
place, and the general result of this uneven advance of the general
prosperity may be expressed by the following figure:--

[Illustration]

The line _AC_ measures time in decades and indicates, by the figures
ranging from 1 to 10, the passing of a century. _AB_ represents the
rate of wages which, on the average, are needed for maintaining the
standard of living at the beginning of the century; and _CD_ measures
the amount that is necessary at the end. The dotted line which crosses
and recrosses the line _BD_ describes the actual pay of labor, ranging
now above the standard rate and now below it. Whenever wages rise
above the standard,