the
eastern end of Long Island--and march directly on New York. It
would be very difficult to plan the development of a line of scouts
in such a way that the scouts would intercept an attack directed
at some unknown point between Boston and the West Indies, perhaps
in the southern part of the West Indies--say Margarita Island.
In fact, it would be impossible; with the result that, unless we
intercepted it by simple good luck, the enemy would succeed in
landing a force on our eastern coast, or else in the seizing of
a base in the West Indies or the southern part of the Caribbean
Sea.

Either one of these acts, successfully performed by an enemy, would
give him an advantage; that is, it would make his position relatively
to ours better than it was before. It would have the same effect,
therefore, as winning a battle; in fact it would constitute the
winning of a battle--not a physical battle but a strategic battle.

It may be objected that, unless we knew our fleet to be more powerful
it would be wiser and more comfortable for all concerned to withdraw
our ships to the shelter of their bases, and let the enemy do his
worst--on the theory that he could not do anything else so ruinous
to us as to sink our fleet.

There is of course considerable reasonableness in this point of
view; and strategy declares the unwisdom of engaging in battles
that are sure to be lost. It must be remembered, however, that the
coming fleet will operate at a considerable strategic disadvantage,
owing to the necessity for guarding the "train" of auxiliary ships
that will come with it, holding fuel and supplies of various kinds;
that this handicap will offset a considerable advantage in offensive
strength; and that the handicap will be still greater if the enemy
fleet have near it a flotilla of transports carrying troops. It
must be remembered also that in all probability, we should not
have detailed information as to the number of vessels coming, and
should not really know whether it was superior to ours or not:
though we should be justified in assuming that the coming fleet
believed itself to be superior to ours in actual fighting power.
Absence of trustworthy information on such points is usual in warfare,
and is one of the elements that is the most difficult to handle.
The Navy Department would be more able to form a correct estimate
on this point than the commander-in-chief until such time as our
scouts might come into absolute contact with