nge of friendly notes
a few years ago might as well not have occurred. If we had done nothing
to check the tendencies in the Pacific, we should have been at war within
another year. Only a complete understanding and definite agreement with
some strong nation could prevent hostilities. The Anglo-Japanese alliance
eliminated Great Britain as a possible ally. There were reasons why it
seemed inadvisable to turn to France, for an arrangement there would
involve the recognition of Russian interests. Therefore, we sought an
alliance with Germany.

"The German Ambassador and myself drafted a treaty last month, with the
proviso that it must be signed within a certain period which, as you
know, will expire within a few minutes. My illness followed, and with it
the necessity of coming to our home, here. I had expected to return to
Washington last week, but as Doctor Allison forbade me to travel for a
while longer, I had the drafts of the treaty sent on, and urged the
German Ambassador to pay me a long-deferred visit. He and his suite have
been here several days, in mufti.

"Now, Mr. Orme, this treaty concerns two important relations--a just
balance of power in the Pacific and a just arrangement by which the
countries of South America can be made to live up to their obligations. I
cannot go into details, and it will be some months before the treaty will
be made public--but Japan must not dominate our Pacific trade routes, and
the Monroe Doctrine must be applied in such a manner that it will not
shelter evil-doers. You understand now why Alcatrante and the Japanese
minister were working together."

"It is quite clear," said Orme. "I don't wish you to tell me any more
than is advisable, but the Japanese minister said that, if the new treaty
should lapse, the German Government would not renew it."

"Very true," said the Secretary. "The German Ambassador is pleased with
the treaty. After it had been drafted, however, and after his home
government had agreed to the terms, Japan brought pressure to bear in
Germany. The result of this Japanese effort--which contained a
counter-proposition for the isolation of Russia--was that the German
Government weakened--not to the point of disavowing the arrangement with
us, but in the event of a redrafting of the treaty, to the adoption of a
less favorable basis of negotiations, or, possibly, even to the
interposition of such obstacles as would make a treaty possible. You can
see how essential t