ty not indicate that such a thing
would happen a little less surely if the number had been twelve, a
little more surely if fourteen?

Common sense, clear headedness, logical reasoning, and a wide
knowledge of all kinds of things will enable a speaker to recognize
these fallacies, anticipate them, and successfully refute them.

Methods of Refuting. Having found the fallacies in an argument you
should proceed to refute them. Just how you can best accomplish your
purpose of weakening your opponent's position, of disposing of his
arguments, of answering his contentions, must depend always upon the
particular circumstances of the occasion, of the material presented,
of the attitude of the judges or audience, of your opponent himself,
and of the purpose you are striving to accomplish. Practice,
knowledge, skill, will in such cases all serve your end. You should be
able to choose, and effectively use the best. It is impossible to
anticipate and provide for all the possibilities, but a few of the
most common probabilities and the methods of dealing with them can be
here set down.

Courteous Correction. In case of apparent error or over-sight you will
do well to be courteous rather than over-bearing and dictatorial in
your correction. Never risk losing an advantage by driving your
audience into sympathy for your opponent by any manner of your own. A
newspaper discussing the objections made to the covenant of the League
of Nations points out an over-sight in this way: "How did Senator Knox
happen to overlook the fact that his plan for compulsory arbitration
is embodied in Article XII of the proposed covenant?"

Refuting Incorrect Analogy. The caution was given that reasoning from
analogy must show the complete correspondence in all points possible
of the known from which the reasoning proceeds to the conclusion about
the unknown, which then is to be accepted as true. Unless that
complete correspondence is established firmly the speaker is likely to
have his carefully worked out analogy demolished before his eyes.
Notice how such refutation is clearly demonstrated in the following.

So it does; but the sophistry here is plain enough, although
it is not always detected. Great genius and force of
character undoubtedly make their own career. But because
Walter Scott was dull at school, is a parent to see with joy
that his son is a dunce? Because Lord Chatham was of a
towering conceit, must we infer