would be threatened between its
historical civilizations and the multiplying races of other climates and
environments. Thus the whole of the European races tended to benefit
alike from the development of new resources whether they pursued their
culture at home or adventured it abroad.

Even before the war, however, the equilibrium thus established between
old civilizations and new resources was being threatened. The prosperity
of Europe was based on the facts that, owing to the large exportable
surplus of foodstuffs in America, she was able to purchase food at a
cheap rate measured in terms of the labor required to produce her own
exports, and that, as a result of her previous investments of capital,
she was entitled to a substantial amount annually without any payment in
return at all. The second of these factors then seemed out of danger,
but, as a result of the growth of population overseas, chiefly in the
United States, the first was not so secure.

When first the virgin soils of America came into bearing, the
proportions of the population of those continents themselves, and
consequently of their own local requirements, to those of Europe were
very small. As lately as 1890 Europe had a population three times that
of North and South America added together. But by 1914 the domestic
requirements of the United States for wheat were approaching their
production, and the date was evidently near when there would be an
exportable surplus only in years of exceptionally favorable harvest.
Indeed, the present domestic requirements of the United States are
estimated at more than ninety per cent of the average yield of the five
years 1909-1913.[5] At that time, however, the tendency towards
stringency was showing itself, not so much in a lack of abundance as in
a steady increase of real cost. That is to say, taking the world as a
whole, there was no deficiency of wheat, but in order to call forth an
adequate supply it was necessary to offer a higher real price. The most
favorable factor in the situation was to be found in the extent to which
Central and Western Europe was being fed from the exportable surplus of
Russia and Roumania.

In short, Europe's claim on the resources of the New World was becoming
precarious; the law of diminishing returns was at last reasserting
itself and was making it necessary year by year for Europe to offer a
greater quantity of other commodities to obtain the same amount of
bread; and Europe, t