conomic concert,
could be attained. Economically considered, war is an attempt to solve
the problem of the utilisation of the world's resources. If the
world's wealth and income can be so distributed among the world's
inhabitants, grouped into nations, as to render those nations, not
indeed satisfied, but sufficiently satisfied not to go to war, a basis
for peace results, even though the arrangement is not ideal. If,
however, the distribution is obviously at variance with the relative
power and needs of the nations, then one nation or group seeks to
overturn the arrangement by force.

To secure such a distribution requires the establishment of certain
canons of international policy and modes of international procedure.
The decision must in some degree conform to the median expectations of
the powers. Back of any particular economic arrangement also, there
{260} must be the force of tradition, a sense of security, a sense of
justice. The redistribution must be such that the resulting motive to
war will be weaker than the motive to peace.

But before we can even approach such a plan to prevent war by reducing
the economic incentive, we must frankly recognise that in certain
circumstances a nation may have a direct economic interest in war. To
deny such an interest is not only fallacious but even dangerous. For
if we believe that nations have no economic motive to war, when in
truth they have, we are likely to neglect to do things necessary to
reverse such motives. Our international task is to make arrangements
which will cause nations to lose their interest in war. It is not that
of trying to persuade nations that they have no such interest.

There is much ambiguity and incoherence in most discussions concerning
the economic advantages of war. On the whole, while the world does not
usually gain by war, but loses through the destruction of capital and
through industrial deterioration, an individual nation may clearly
gain. England gained from the Seven Years' War, the United States from
the war with Mexico, Germany from the war of 1870, Japan from its war
with China. By war nations may secure markets, access to raw
materials, better opportunities for investment and a firm basis for
industrial progress; they may cripple troublesome competitors; they may
exact indemnities. Much that is accounted gain on this score may in
the end prove to be loss, but it is false to state that there can be no
profit at all.