had left it, firing of cannon
was heard for four hours together. That must have been from the Bastile,
as probably the _tiers etat_ were not so provided. It is shocking to
imagine what may have happened in such a thronged city! One of the
couriers was stopped twice or thrice, as supposed to pass from the King;
but redeemed himself by pretending to be despatched by the _tiers etat_.
Madame de Calonne[2] told Dutens, that the newly encamped troops desert
by hundreds.

[Footnote 1: The Baron de Breteuil had been the Controller of the
Household, and was appointed Necker's successor; but his Ministry did
not last above a fortnight, as the King found himself compelled to
restore Necker.]

[Footnote 2: Mme. de Calonne's husband had been Prime Minister for some
years, having succeeded Necker in 1780.]

Here seems the egg to be hatched, and imagination runs away with the
idea. I may fancy I shall hear of the King and Queen leaving Versailles,
like Charles the First, and then skips imagination six-and-forty years
lower, and figures their fugitive Majesties taking refuge in this
country. I have besides another idea. If the Bastile conquers, still is
it impossible, considering the general spirit in the country, and the
numerous fortified places in France, but some may be seized by the
_dissidents_, and whole provinces be torn from the Crown? On the other
hand, if the King prevails, what heavy despotism will the _etats_, by
their want of temper and moderation, have drawn on their country! They
might have obtained many capital points, and removed great oppression.
No French monarch will ever summon _etats_ again, if this moment has
been thrown away.

Though I have stocked myself with such a set of visions for the event
either way, I do not pretend to foresee what will happen. Penetration
argues from reasonable probabilities; but chance and folly are apt to
contradict calculation, and hitherto they seem to have full scope for
action. One hears of no genius on either side, nor do symptoms of any
appear. There will perhaps: such times and tempests bring forth, at
least bring out, great men. I do not take the Duke of Orleans[1] or
Mirabeau[2] to be built _du bois dont on les fait_; no, nor Monsieur
Necker. He may be a great traitor, if he made the confusion designedly:
but it is a woful evasion, if the promised financier slips into a black
politician! I adore liberty, but I would bestow it as honestly as I
could; and a civil war, b