f the world or foretells the dawn of a
millennium. And history affords no presumption in favour of the prophet
who prophesies smooth things. The prognostics of a pessimist may be as
much belied by the event as the hopes of an optimist. But for one
prophet to decry the predictions of another simply as prophecies is a
downright absurdity. Even among rival soothsayers some regard must be
had to fairness and common sense; when Zedekiah, the son of Chenaanah,
smote Micaiah on the cheek, he struck him not on the ground that he
prophesied but that his gloomy predictions were false. Zedekiah was an
imposter, he was not a fool, and after all Micaiah, who prophesied evil
and not good, turned out the true prophet.

But an _argumentum ad hominem_ is never a satisfactory form of
reasoning, and it is worth while considering for a moment what is the
value of prophecy or foresight in politics. Candour compels the
admission that anticipations of the future are at best most uncertain.
Cobden and Bright foretold that Free Trade would benefit England; they
also foretold that the civilised world would, influenced by England's
example, reject protective tariffs. Neither anticipation was
unreasonable, but the one was justified whilst the other was confuted by
events. All that can be said is that on such anticipations,
untrustworthy though they may be, the conduct no less of public than of
private life depends. Criticism on anything that is new and untried,
whether it be a new-built bridge or a new-made constitution, is of
necessity predictive. But there is an essential difference between
foresight and guessing. The prevision of a philosophic statesman is
grounded on the knowledge of the past and on the analysis of existing
tendencies. It deals with principles. Such, for example, was the
foresight of Burke when he dogmatically foretold that the French
Constitution of 1791 could not stand.[108] Guessing is at best based on
acute observation of the current events of the day, that is of things
which are in their nature uncertain. On January 29, 1848, Tocqueville
analysed the condition of French society, and in the Chamber of Deputies
foretold the approach of revolution.

On February 21, 1848, Girardin said that the monarchy of July would not
last three days longer. February 24 verified the insight and foresight
of the statesman, and proved that the journalist was an acute observer.
The difference is worth consideration. Tocqueville's prophecy wo