centuries, and of modes of thought, literatures, arts,
creeds, the revolutions in political ideals, offer so complex a mass of
phenomena that the breakdown of the theory, patent at once in the
narrower sphere of observation, is here obscured and shielded from
detection. Man's intellect is easily the dupe of the heart's desire,
and in the brief span of human life willingly carries a fiction to the
grave. And he who defends a pleasing dream is necessarily honoured
amongst men more than the visionary whose course is towards the glacier
heights and the icy solitudes of thought.

Sec. 4. THE FALL OF EMPIRES: THE CYCLIC THEORY

The second theory is that of a cycle in human affairs, which controls
the rise and fall of empires by a law similar to that of the seasons
and the revolutions of the heavenly bodies. This theory varies little;
the metaphors, the figures by which it is darkened or made clearer
change, but the essential idea remains one in the great myth of Plato
or in the Indian epics, in the rigid steel-clasped system of Vico, or
in the sentimental musings of Volney. The vicissitudes are no more
determined by the neglect or performance of religious rites or certain
ethical rules. Man's life is regarded as part of the universal scheme
of things, and the fate of empires as subject to natural laws. The
mode in which this theory originates thus connects itself at once with
the mode of the Chaldean astrology and modern evolution.

It appears late in the development of Hebrew thought, and finds its
most remarkable expression in the fragment, the writer of which is now
not unfrequently spoken of as "Khoeleth."[5] "One generation passeth
away and another generation cometh; but the earth abideth for ever.
The sun also riseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place,
where he arose. The wind goeth towards the south and turneth about
unto the north, it whirleth about continually, and the wind returneth
again according to his circuits. The thing that hath been, it is that
which shall be; and that which is done, is that which shall be done,
and there is no new thing under the sun. Is there anything whereof it
may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old time, which
was before us. There is no remembrance of former things; neither shall
there be any remembrance of things that are to come with those that
shall come after."

The writings of Machiavelli reveal a mind based on the same deeps as