very remarkable conclusion. When this
has been done I shall be entirely at your service; and I suggest that
it would be more interesting if Doctor Thorndyke would give us his
statement before I furnish you with the actual facts."

"I am entirely of your opinion," said Thorndyke.

"Then in that case," said Mr. Jellicoe, "I suggest that you disregard
me, and address your remarks to your friends as if I were not present."

Thorndyke acquiesced with a bow, and Mr. Jellicoe, having seated
himself in his elbow-chair behind the table, poured himself out a glass
of water, selected a cigarette from a neat silver case, lighted it
deliberately, and leaned back to listen at his ease.

"My first acquaintance with this case," Thorndyke began without
preamble, "was made through the medium of the daily papers about two
years ago; and I may say that, although I had no interest in it beyond
the purely academic interest of a specialist in a case that lies in his
particular specialty, I considered it with deep attention. The
newspaper reports contained no particulars of the relations of the
parties that could furnish any hints as to motives on the part of any
of them, but merely a bare statement of the events. And this was a
distinct advantage, inasmuch as it left one to consider the facts of
the case without regard to motive--to balance the _prima facie_
probabilities with an open mind. And it may surprize you to learn that
those _prima facie_ probabilities pointed from the very first to that
solution which has been put to the test of experiment this evening.
Hence it will be well for me to begin by giving the conclusions that I
reached by reasoning from the facts set forth in the newspapers before
any of the further facts came to my knowledge.

"From the facts as stated in the newspaper reports it is obvious that
there were four possible explanations of the disappearance.

"1. The man might be alive and in hiding. This was highly improbable,
for the reasons that were stated by Mr. Loram at the late hearing of
the application, and for a further reason that I shall mention
presently.

"2. He might have died by accident or disease, and his body failed to
be identified. This was even more improbable, seeing that he carried
on his person abundant means of identification, including visiting
cards.

"3. He might have been murdered by some stranger for the sake of his
portable property. This was highly improbable for the same