able for you to miss the latest possible
news, it would be more undesirable for you to be caught in the ice and
forced to winter.

Concerning this matter I can only give you information as to what had
happened in previous years:

Last year the Bays froze permanently on March 24.
Last year the Sound froze permanently on May 7 or 8.

By the Bays I mean the water south of Hut Point, inside Turtle Back
Island, south of Glacier Tongue, inside the islands north of Glacier
Tongue, and, I think, the western shores of the Sound.

The following gives the ice movements in the Sound in more detail:

March 24.-25. Ice forming and opening with leads.
" 26. Sea clear.
" 27. Strait apparently freezing.
" 28 (early). Ice over whole Sound.
" 29. All Ice gone.
" 30. Freezing over.
April 1. Ice out, etc.

This sort of thing continued till May, with lengthening intervals, but
never more than three days of frozen sea.

The dates of freezing over in 1902 were approximately the same, except
that the Sound continued to open beyond the Glacier Tongue throughout the
winter.

In 1903 the Bays did not break out, but the Sound was freezing and
opening in March and April as in the other years. I think it is certain
that the old ice lately broken as well as all the broken young ice drifts
to the west, and that a ship on the western side of the Sound would be
pretty certainly entangled at this season of the year.

I think it more than probable that you will find all the old ice broken
out when you return from the north, and the Bay south of Cape Armitage
completely open.

If so, this seems to me to be a good place for you to wait, moored to the
edge of the Barrier, if possible. Young ice will constantly form about
you, but I do not think you need fear its detaining you until after the
third week in March. I am afraid it may be very cold and unpleasant
waiting in such a situation, and possibly better and safer conditions for
the ship can be found farther to the west and nearer to the decayed
Glacier ice south of Black Island.

Moored here the ship would have a clear sea to leeward, whereas in the
Bay beyond Cape Armitage she might have a lee shore. You will know best
how to make a good permanent ice anchor.

There are shoals off Cape Armitage which may extend for one or even two
miles, and careful navigation is needed in this immediate vicinity. The
shoa